Updated Intermediate Term Projections – October 31, 2014

So, this week I’ve been thinking a lot about the market’s recent movements and reviewing historical charts, and it looks like there could be continued upside in the coming weeks and possibly months.

 

It looks as if the Dow, NDX, and S&P 500 are about to make new highs. In my Oct. 22 post, I labeled the current rally on the NDX as an upward B wave.  Although B waves can make new highs, the sharpness of this present rally (without any meaningful pullback along the way) is not characteristic of rallies within corrections.

So, I am updating my Elliott Wave Counts for the Dow and NDX:

NDX:

ndx primary 3 updated

dow primary 3 updated

In general, I don’t favor complicated wave counts with lots of subdivisions or long wave extensions. Though I’ve found a lot of value in the Elliott Wave Theory, it is after all just a theory, and when counts become too complicated, they can get disconnected from reality. That’s what I think is happening with the Elliott super-bears who are using a zillion numbers and letters to label the whole move up from 2009 as a bear market rally.

I like to think of market history as telling a story, and then sidestep complexities a bit to see at what periods was the market basically corrective, and at what periods was it basically impulsive. And then I look to see if there’s an Elliott Wave pattern which fits that narrative. However, within a general market outlook, I’m willing to let wave counts grow in complexity if the market action calls for it which I think is the case now.

I still think that the market is not too far away from the top of Primary 3 and that it could occur anywhere between present levels and 4800 for the NDX and the mid-18000s on the Dow.

I’ll post some additional information this weekend.

 

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