The 28 Year Cycle

I am generally leery of cycle theories that involve fixed intervals of years. Many of them are rooted in astrology and planetary cycles which I do not believe influence world events. However, it is possible that some of these time intervals could coincidentally be pertinent to the stock market for socioeconomic reasons.

One time-interval that does seem to have significance is a 28-year interval from one important high to another, and from one important low to another, first discovered by George Lindsay, a famous market technician of the previous century.

The 28-year cycle is significant now because 2015 is 28 years from 1987, in which there was a 2-month crash during Aug-Oct that dropped the Dow 41%. Thus, 1987 had both an important high and low, so the 28-year cycle suggests an important top, bottom, or both during 2015-2016.

Here are some previous instances that I have identified (give or take a year). All of the lows came after drops of at least 17%, with many being 20-30%.

Lows of 1982 & 2010 (or 2011)

Highs of 1980 & 2007

Lows of 1974 & 2002

Highs of 1973 & 2000

Lows of 1970 & 1998

Lows of 1962 & 1990

Highs of 1959-60 & 1987

Corrections of 1956-57 & 1983-84

Lows of 1946 & 1974

Lows of 1942 & 1970

Lows of 1938 & 1966

Lows of 1932 & 1960

Lows of 1921 & 1949

 

See my previous posts for more information on 2015.

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