U.S. Stock Market Update – August 12, 2015

Since my last update on July 6, the U.S. stock market has performed very much as I expected. The only difference is that it took a little longer for the downside to accelerate, so the correction may terminate in September rather than this month. I expect the Dow to bottom out around 15300-15800.

To recap my intermediate-term rationale, I have three charts labeled below with links to sites where you can learn more about the corresponding patterns. Click on the charts for a clearer image.

Three Peaks and a Domed House
dia tpdh august 2015

Ascending Middle Section:
Dow middle section August 2015

Bull Market Elliott Wave Count:
ndx elliott wave aug 2015
Of all the major indices, I think the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) shows the clearest Elliott Wave pattern.

Lastly, I should mention that we are approaching the 28th anniversary of the 1987 crash. For some mysterious reason, there seems to be a phenomenon in which drops of 20+% are separated by roughly 28-year intervals. I previously discussed this here.

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