Given the strong rally last week, I think the mini-correction ended at the Nov. 13 low. I’ll post more information as soon as I have time, but I think we are in a rally that will take us well above the May highs.
At the high on Nov. 3, the S&P 500 was within 1% of its May peak. Since then, the market has pulled back sharply, but I think the pullback on the S&P is analogous to situations in 2009 and 2011.
After the 2009 low, the first major pullback (Mar. 27-30) retraced 32% of the rally off the March 9 low.
After the 2011 low, the first major pullback (Oct. 31 – Nov. 25), retraced 61% of the rally off the Oct. 4 low.
The current pullback has retraced 38% of the rally off the Sept. 29 low (which, for now, I consider to be the “real” low even though the August low was slightly lower).
So, if we’re following the 2009 precedent, the pullback could be done now. However, if we follow the 2011 precedent, the S&P would fall to 1967. It actually would not surprise me too much if we hit this level on Monday.