I have mentioned a few other George Lindsay patterns on this blog before, such as the Counts from the Middle Section and Three Peaks and a Domed House. Another Lindsay theory suggests that there is a 15 year interval between major lows and major highs, and a 12-13 year interval between major highs and major lows.
I am skeptical of long-term patterns with fixed time intervals. I’m not into superstitious numerology. However, it is possible that some of these time intervals are a result of repeating patterns in economics, sociology, or psychology. So, I decided to examine U.S. market history over the past 100 years to see if I myself could find evidence of these patterns.
I have found enough instances of these intervals to think that, they may actually have some significance if you give or take a year. So, here are the instances I found on the Dow Jones Industrials Average.
15-year low-to-high intervals
1914 low – 1929 high
1921 low – 1937 high
1932 low – 1946 high (~1 year off)
1942 low – 1956 high (~1 year off)
1960 low – 1976/1977 highs
1974 low – 1990 high
1982 low – 1997/1998 highs
12-13 year high-to-low intervals
1919 high – 1932 low
1929 high -1942 low
1937 high – 1949 low
1962 high – 1974 low
1969 high – 1982 low
1976-77 highs – 1990 low
1990 high – 2002/2003 lows
1998 high – 2011 low
One possible explanation for the intervals is that different cycles (whether in business, sociology, or psychology) overlap each other. If most of them are in downward phases concurrently, then you get severe bear markets associated with recessions. However, if one type of cycle is approaching its low point, but other cycles are in upswings, you may only get a correction.
Anyhow, if a 15 year interval began at the 2002 low, it would project a top in 2017-2018. If a 12-13 year interval began from the 2007 top, it would project a low around 2020.
These projects fit with other patterns I have been tracking that project a bull market top in the U.S. stock market during 2017-2018. From there, I would expect a bear market to last at least two years, so a bottom around 2020 could make sense.