George Lindsay’s 15 and 12 Year Cycles

I have mentioned a few other George Lindsay patterns on this blog before, such as the Counts from the Middle Section and Three Peaks and a Domed House. Another Lindsay theory suggests that there is a 15 year interval between major lows and major highs, and a 12-13 year interval between major highs and major lows.

I am skeptical of long-term patterns with fixed time intervals. I’m not into superstitious numerology. However, it is possible that some of these time intervals are a result of repeating patterns in economics, sociology, or psychology. So, I decided to examine U.S. market history over the past 100 years to see if I myself could find evidence of these patterns.

I have found enough instances of these intervals to think that, they may actually have some significance if you give or take a year. So, here are the instances I found on the Dow Jones Industrials Average.

15-year low-to-high intervals

1914 low – 1929 high

1921 low – 1937 high

1932 low – 1946 high (~1 year off)

1942 low – 1956 high (~1 year off)

1960 low – 1976/1977 highs

1974 low – 1990 high

1982 low – 1997/1998 highs

 

12-13 year high-to-low intervals

1919 high – 1932 low

1929 high -1942 low

1937 high – 1949 low

1962 high – 1974 low

1969 high – 1982 low

1976-77 highs – 1990 low

1990 high – 2002/2003 lows

1998 high – 2011 low

One possible explanation for the intervals is that different cycles (whether in business, sociology, or psychology) overlap each other. If most of them are in downward phases concurrently, then you get severe bear markets associated with recessions. However, if one type of cycle is approaching its low point, but other cycles are in upswings, you may only get a correction.

Anyhow, if a 15 year interval began at the 2002 low, it would project a top in 2017-2018. If a 12-13 year interval began from the 2007 top, it would project a low around 2020.

These projects fit with other patterns I have been tracking that project a bull market top in the U.S. stock market during 2017-2018. From there, I would expect a bear market to last at least two years, so a bottom around 2020 could make sense.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s