Last week’s market activity was very bullish on the major U.S. indices. I am slightly inclined to say that the drop from the April highs is over (especially given that the Dow and NDX show nice 3-wave zigzags down from the April highs, and the NDX had a total drop of 9% which is rather substantial). But there have been sooooo many rallies since late-2014 that looked really promising but failed. I would say there is a ~55% chance that we’re headed to new highs now.
From a contrarian standpoint, considering how tall the “wall of worry” is, whenever we finally make new highs, the market could end up charging higher like it did in early 2013 when it zoomed higher to everyone’s astonishment following the angst of 2012.