Elliott Wave Outlook for Ford

I think that Ford (F) has exhibited classic Elliott Wave patterns since the bear market low in 2008, and the chart below shows where the stock appears to be now.

Ford July 2016

It appears that Ford has completed two primary waves (labelled in blue) since the 2008 bear market low. Primary Wave 1 had a nice five wave subdivision. The fifth wave (Aug. 2012 – Nov. 2013) came slightly short of making a new high but that happens sometimes when you have a very powerful 3rd wave like Ford had from 2009-2011.

The Primary Wave 2 downturn began in Nov. 2013, and it appeared to take the form of a complex correction, bottoming out in Feb. 2016. The idea behind a complex correction is that there are two corrective patterns separated by a zigzag. This separating zigzag is the X- Wave. In our case, it appears that Ford had an expanded flat from Nov. 2013 to Oct. 2014 (comprising Wave W in white on the chart). After that, there was an upward zigzag to Mar. 2015 (Wave X).  Then, the terminal corrective pattern was a zigzag to Feb. 2016.

Since February, we appear to have completed two significant waves. I am not sure whether the end of Wave 1 occurred on Mar. 4 or Apr. 28. But from either point, you can find a 3-wave pattern leading to the July 1 low, which looks like a Wave 2 bottom. It looks like Ford is in a 3rd wave now.

As for how high the 3rd wave would go, I would expect it to be at least as big as the 1st wave on a percentage basis. That gives a minimum target of 15.09 or 15.48, depending on where you consider Wave 1 to have ended.

 

 

 

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