Update (10/14/2016)

It looks like some sort of short-term pullback in U.S. stocks might be underway, and I now think that we might have seen five waves of minor degree since the February low on the NASDAQ-100 (NDX). If, in fact, the five wave sequence is complete, the chart below shows the most likely scenario in my estimation.

ndx October 13, 2016.png

What would confirm the completion of the five wave sequence is if the current pullback extends to the September low at 4656. Under this scenario, the NDX is in an Intermediate Wave 2 drop and is likely to bottom out somewhere between the June low at 4179 and the September low at 4656. After that, I would expect a rally to new highs lasting until mid-2017, which would form the third Intermediate wave (white) within Primary 5.

As for my longer term outlook, I will remain bullish unless we get a drop from recent highs exceeding 10% on all the major indices.

 

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