Elliott Wave Update (11/10/2016, 2:00 AM)

It looks as if the NASDAQ-100 entered an intermediate degree Wave-2 decline in October, a scenario I described in this post. Whether the Nov. 4 low marked the bottom is highly debatable. Precedent from this bull market’s history suggests that the Nov. 4 low will be broken given that thus far, the NDX has only had a peak to trough decline of 5%, and the previous declines since 2009 that I have labeled as intermediate Wave 2’s ranged from 8 – 13% (June-July 2009, Aug 2010, Apr – June 2012, Sept – Oct 2015).

However, if you count the post-election futures plunge, the NDX had a drop of 7% since the October highs, which is close to the target range. So, that could have completed the correction, although it is also possible that the futures low represented a support level that will eventually have to be hit in the actual index.

But regardless of what happens short term, I expect the NDX to rally to at least 5500 by Q3 2017 as a powerful 3rd wave kicks in.

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s