Comparing Rallies

There have been three major rallies on the NASDAQ-100 since the February 2016 low. As of today (Feb. 16, 2017), the current rally matches the prior two almost exactly.

2/8/16 – 4/19/16: 686 Pts

6/27/16 – 9/7/16: 660 Pts

11/4/16 – 2/16/17: 669 Pts

Looking at those numbers, it still looks like the market could be near a correction. However, the acceleration of the rally over the past week has been noteworthy. If the rally extends beyond another 3% or so, we may be seeing a 3rd wave extension, in which case any correction over the next couple months would be milder (probably more like a 5% pullback):

Potential 3rd Wave Extension Count on the NASDAQ-100’s QQQ ETF:


But regardless of what happens in the coming month or two, I expect the bull market to last through most or all of 2017.







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