Update (3/6/2017)

If the NASDAQ-100 makes another decisive push to new highs, I would say that if any correction happens in the next couple months, it would probably be only a drop of about 5%, unless there is a sudden stream of negative economic news.

I am not entirely sure what is driving this rally, but the fact that it has accelerated since the start of the year, amid wild political news, suggests to me that intermediate-to-long term investors are confident in an acceleration of economic growth later this year.

In the past century of U.S. stock market history, I have identified three bull markets which lasted longer than 5 years (1921-1929, 1949-1960, 1982 – 2000), and all three of them ended in a period of strong economic growth (stronger than any sustained growth we have seen during the current bull market).

Thus, I expect that the economy will experience a very strong growth phase before this current bull market ends. I think that the Trump administration, in conjunction with the Republican-controlled government, will eventually lead the government in a more business-friendly and pro-growth direction, which could facilitate the economic acceleration.

 

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