Next Target (4/27/2021 Pre-Market)

I am now looking for the NASDAQ-100 to rally to approximately 14,400, the target given by the head and shoulders continuation pattern that I discussed in this post. After that, there will likely be a drop of 10-14%.

Another Short-Term Update (4/25/2021)

The NDX had a rather sudden drop late Friday after hitting 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from Apr 16-22. If the NDX can reverse that intraday drop, I would be confident to say that it is headed to new highs.

Quick Update (4/21/2021 Pre-Market)

I think that the Minute Wave IV on the NDX (which my last post speculated might be imminent), is underway now. My downside target is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from Mar 25 to Apr 16. Such a retracement would take the NDX to approximately 13,500.

Update (4/19/2021 Pre-Market)

Above is a chart of the NDX with my Elliott Wave count from the Mar 5 low. I think that low ended Minor Wave IV, and since then we had a Minute Wave I to Mar 16, Minute II to Mar 25, and we are now in Minute III.

Minute III has already exceeded Minute I on both a point and percentage basis. Since the point marked by the yellow arrow on the chart, the rally has been slowing down, so it is possible that we are about to see Minute IV.

But if the NDX keeps going higher, my next target would be 161.8% Minute I. That would be 14,389 on a point basis, and 14,449 on a percentage basis. Interestingly, the head and shoulders breakout described in my previous post also predicts a rally to this range. If Minute III comes up short, then this will probably be the target area for Minute V.

Heading to New Highs (4/6/2021 Pre-Market)

In my view, Monday’s trading session confirms that the NDX will continue rallying to new highs. We got a very clear breakout above the neckline of a head and shoulders continuation pattern.

My Elliott Wave count for the NDX (from March 2020 – present) is below:

The head and shoulders pattern on the first chart implies a rally to approximately 14,400, based on the distance between the head and the neckline. However, looking at my Elliott Wave count, the index’s rally was reluctant in nature during the stretch from the Nov 2 low to the Feb 16 high (Minor Wave III – magenta), and the wave count was nearly invalidated at the Mar 5 low. Because of this weakness, I am not confident that the NDX will get far above the Feb 16 high before a drop of 10-14% takes place to form an Intermediate Wave II correction.

But after that correction, we will be in Intermediate III of Primary III, which means the second half of this year should be very bullish.

I cannot find a clear Elliott Wave count on the Dow and S&P 500 from the March 2020 low to the present, nor do I find any obvious George Lindsay patterns. Thus, for now I will continue to assume that the NDX is driving the overall U.S. stock market.

Upside Breakout ? (4/4/2021)

On Thursday, Apr 1, the NDX rallied above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from Feb 16 – Mar 5. The index also rallied above the neckline of what appears to be a head and shoulders continuation pattern.

These are bullish signals suggesting that the NDX will rally above the Feb 16 high, but before becoming highly confident in that, I want to see one more strong trading session above the neckline shown above. Then I’ll be confident that Thursday’s rally wasn’t just an April Fools’ Day joke haha . . .